SCIENCE CHINA Life Sciences, Volume 63 , Issue 8 : 1257-1260(2020) https://doi.org/10.1007/s11427-020-1717-9

Modelling-based evaluation of the effect of quarantine control by the Chinese government in the coronavirus disease 2019 outbreak

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  • ReceivedApr 10, 2020
  • AcceptedMay 2, 2020
  • PublishedMay 8, 2020


There is no abstract available for this article.

Funded by

the Fundamental Research Funds for the Central Universities(14380129)

the National Natural Science Foundation of China(21877060)


We would like to thank Prof. Chenyu Zhang (Nanjing University, NJU) and Prof. Yu Xue (Huazhong University of Science and Technology, HUST) for their constructive discussion and suggestions. We also appreciate technical supports from Wanshan Ning (HUST) and Liang-Yu Fu (NJU). The study was supported by the Fundamental Research Funds for the Central Universities (14380129) and the National Natural Science Foundation of China (21877060).

Interest statement

The author(s) declare that they have no conflict of interest.



The supporting information is available online at https://doi.org/10.1007/s11427-020-1717-9. The supporting materials are published as submitted, without typesetting or editing. The responsibility for scientific accuracy and content remains entirely with the authors.


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  • Figure 1

    Parameter estimation of the SEIR transmission model. A, Heatmap showing the dynamic change of estimated parameters of the SEIR model over time. In order to compare data among different cities, only relative values are shown in the heatmap. Data for example cities (in red) are shown in C–E. B, Fold changes of the three parameters of the SEIR model. Dynamics of estimated σ (C) or γ (D) parameters over time in Wuhan. E, Dynamics of estimated β parameter over time in the population of mainland China (left), Wuhan city (middle) and Nanjing city (right). In this figure, the modelling analysis was performed in the populations of the Hubei province, the mainland of China as well as the top 44 cities of the whole mainland of China. Dashed lines indicate the date of lockdown of Wuhan.

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