SCIENTIA SINICA Mathematica, Volume 50 , Issue 3 : 385(2020) https://doi.org/10.1360/SSM-2020-0026

Modeling and prediction for the trend of outbreak of NCP based on a time-delay dynamic system

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  • ReceivedFeb 4, 2020
  • AcceptedFeb 6, 2020
  • PublishedFeb 10, 2020


In late December 2019, a series of novel coronavirus pneumonia (NCP) cases emerged in Wuhan, and the outbreak of NCP began to spreadrapidly to the whole country and even overseaswithin a few days. The scientific and effective understanding of epidemic development is essentialfor the prevention and control. In this paper, based on the cumulative number of confirmedand cured cases reported daily by the National Health Committee, we propose a novel dynamic systemwith time-delay to describe the outbreak of NCP. The time-delay process is introduced todescribe the latent period and treatment cycle. Numerical simulations show that the parametersin the model are identified accurately, and the trend of the outbreak of NCP is effectivelysimulated. Moreover, the prediction for the tendency of NCP is provided for reference.Finally, we would conclude that the situation would be better and better under the currenteffective and efficient measures of government.

Funded by


上海科学技术委员会 “上海青年科技启明星计划"(19QA1403400)


本文由上海财经大学数学学院“大数据融合反演建模” 科研创新团队完成. 感谢中泰证券边敬云女士、上海财经大学数学学院硕士研究生 唐梦园、林御景、卢俊俊和许天启搜集处理数据. 武汉加油


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